Mapping Susceptibility to Gentrification: The Early Warning Toolkit

By Karen Chapple

The Bay Area is one of the most expensive and challenging housing markets in the country.[1] On average, local households spend 48% of their income on housing, compared to 29% for the country as a whole, and just 12% can afford the median priced home.[2] A quarter of Bay Area renters meet HUD’s definition of severely housing burdened, dedicating more than 50 percent of their income to housing.[3] Anticipated growth will place even more pressure on the region’s housing market. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) projects an additional 1.9 million people and 1.6 million jobs by 2035.[4] Meanwhile, new funding for transit approved by Bay Area voters will add 100 new stations, many in already built-up areas, to the region’s existing 300 rapid transit stations and transit corridors.[5] Although the planned new transit facilities will help to accommodate much of the population growth, they also present a challenge. Researchers generally agree that new transit investment will bring higher property values to the surrounding area (except in the immediate vicinity of the transit station).[6] This could spur a process of gentrification, which will be beneficial to some – but not to those who cannot bear rent increases and are forced to leave the neighborhood. This report was prepared for ABAG as part of its Development without Displacement project funded by an environmental justice grant from CalTrans.